I came across the outlook from a major Swedish bank while listening to a podcast during one of my training sessions. It is well documented and, at this stage, strongly focused on risk — uncertainty being the dominant theme.
From my perspective, with US midterm elections approaching and living costs still elevated, the administration’s focus is likely to shift further toward populist, consumer-friendly economic measures aimed at resonating with voters. In the near term, this could help dampen market risks by supporting household sentiment and consumption. In the end, roughly 70% of the US economy is driven by consumer spending.
Swedbank notes that the global economy has entered a more uncertain phase following a calmer second half of 2025. Growth is continuing, but momentum is weak and risks have increased.
For Europe and Sweden, Swedbank forecasts modest growth supported by easing inflation and gradual interest-rate cuts. However, export-dependent economies remain vulnerable to geopolitical tensions and renewed trade frictions.
Overall, Swedbank’s outlook for 2026 is cautious: subdued growth, easing inflation, gradual monetary easing — and unusually high uncertainty across the US, Europe, and Sweden.
https://podcasts.apple.com/se/podcast/swedbank-makrosnack/id1870279224?l=en-GB&i=1000746043085
